Return of the ‘death group’? SailGP tweaks how groups are seeded

SailGP has quietly updated one of its sailing instructions ahead of Portsmouth, and while it won’t rewrite history, it will change how the groups are allocated from here on out. It could even mean the return of the famous Halifax ‘death group’.

When the race committee opts to split the fleet into two groups at a SailGP event, the order in which teams are seeded matters enormously. The ABBA allocation system used to distribute boats between groups is only as fair as the ranking list it draws from.

Under the previous rule, the seeding was based on the current season championship ranking. On paper, it seems a logical enough approach. In practice, it opened the door to some unrepresentative groupings, as we saw in Halifax with the Black Foils.

The Kiwis are a top-tier team and were last in the championship standings going into Halifax after being out of action since Auckland due to the devastating crash with the French. They were seeded last, which led to the ‘unfair’ groupings and the creation of the group A ‘death group’.

The new rule is a straightforward swap. From now on, if boats are divided into groups before the first race of a regatta, seeding will be based on the results from the previous regatta, rather than the cumulative season standings. 

The first event of a season will still be allocated based on the previous season's championship standings, but that’s one for next year.

So, if we go racing in split fleets, how will the groups be allocated for Portsmouth based on the new rule?

If the race committee decides to go with split fleets from the get-go in Portsmouth, group A will consist of: Spain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Italy, Denmark and Brazil. Group B will consist of: Sweden, Switzerland, USA. Germany, France and Great Britain.

Although this new rule, in retrospect, would not have fixed the disparity between the Black Foils' seeding versus their ability in Halifax, it appears it may fix it, at least in principle, for Portsmouth.

The Kiwis would now seed into group A in third rather than sixth, but the result is a group order that looks mysteriously similar to Halifax.

The groups are identical, minus one change: France for Italy. The main players still remain in group A (the ‘death group’), Spain, Australia and New Zealand. An interesting coincidence.

It’s fair to say that Canada, Denmark and Brazil will not be happy with the rule change that has caused this, as they face the same tough group straight after Halifax.

There is another interesting piece. Great Britain. A team who sit third in the season standings are now seeded third last for their home event, which slips them as the last team in the smaller group B. 

The home advantage just got a bit sweeter, and their run of luck with group allocation continues. This is all due to their wing breakage on the Sunday of Halifax that put them in third last place overall, a result that is not representative of their ability.

As a result, my opinion is that this rule change doesn't necessarily ‘fix’ anything; it’s a change in philosophy more than anything else. 

If group fairness still needs addressing, then there are other options maybe worth exploring. For example, I’ve mentioned the possibility of re-ordering groups after Saturday’s racing on a previous podcast. There have also been rumours from SailGP about a possible gold/silver split on a Sunday - something us sailors are accustomed to.

Using the previous regatta as the benchmark ties seeding to recent form rather than broad, season-long trajectory. 

Teams that arrive in Portsmouth flying after Halifax will be seeded accordingly. A team that had a difficult week will slot in lower, regardless of where they sit in the overall standings. Although there is the chance we may not see it play out at all if race management opts for full fleet racing.

There is a reasonable argument on either side. The season championship ranking reflects a longer body of evidence and is harder to distort with one rogue result. On the other hand, it can carry the weight of early-season performances that no longer reflect where a team actually is.

In a series where the margins are fine, and the group composition can shape the entire trajectory of a regatta, this is no small change. Whether we will see this rule play out in Portsmouth or not remains unknown.